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Inflation forte et euro faible

En cette période estivale, la France est confrontée à une forte inflation (plus de  6% officiellement, pratiquement plus près de 10% comme en Allemagne ou en Grande Bretagne), et à un euro faible (0,99 euro pour un dollar, contre 1,15 dollars il y a un an).

La B.C.E.  » sourde et aveugle », considère que l’inflation (qu’elle a elle même générée en partie en imprimant des milliers de milliards d’euros depuis la crise de 2008 pour soutenir les banques européennes) ne peut être que  » transitoire », et donc que le taux de rémunération des crédits qu’elle octroie est proche de 0,5 %. Ce déni de la B.C.E. ne peut que renforcer l’inflation. 

En permettant aux différents états européens (dont la France) de s’endetter à bon compte, la B.C.E. n’ a imposé aucune rigueur financière aux états. Chaque état dépense et s’endette sans aucune limite, ce qui rend la situation actuelle d’autant plus inconfortable.

Les gros investisseurs (banques, assurances, hedges funds,…), en empruntant des euros à 0,5 %, s’empressent de vendre ces euros empruntés contre des dollars, qui rapportent 2,5 % actuellement. (Opération dite de  » carry- trade »). Ces opérateurs contribuent à faire baisser davantage la valeur de l’euro. Il y a un double avantage pour ces institutions : L’argent est placé à 2% net, mais il est en plus remboursé en euros dévalués! 

Mais pour les résidents ordinaires, les salariés, les retraités, les consommateurs modestes, la note à payer est lourde: toute importation provenant de l’étranger est payée en dollars (gaz, pétrole, matières premières, produits fabriqués en Asie,…), donc la note est plus chère en euros. Ces achats plus chers diminuent d’autant le pouvoir d’achat disponible, entraînant une récession de plus en plus forte.

L’Europe est désormais dépendante de sources d’approvisionnement énergétiques de plus en plus chères, et les exportations européennes sont sur le point de s’effondrer.

L’attitude laxiste de la B.C.E. d’une part, et l’attitude dépensière au-delà de toute limite de nos états d’autre part, entraînent une inflation de plus en plus forte et font également peser une inquiétude sur la confiance en l’euro.  L’euro, tel que nous le connaissons, existera- t- il encore dans 10 ans? 

A force de dévaluation de l’euro, du manque de rigueur,  d’accepter que l’on se prive de pétrole et de gaz russe, l’Europe se met en position de faiblesse par rapport à toutes les monnaies, notamment le dollar et le franc suisse.

La solidarité des pays  de la zone euro risque d’être  soumise à rude épreuve dans un contexte inédit de forte récession et de hausse de l’inflation.

Mme Lagarde (B.C.E.), Mme Van der Leyen (C.E.), messieurs Macron et Scholz (chancelier allemand) seront jugés sévèrement par l’ Histoire. Mais, dans l’immédiat, c’est nous qui  » trinquons »…  

Chanoine

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